How the Break Hit Calculator Works

The Break Hit Calculator gives you the most accurate per-athlete hit probabilities available for any set on Checklist2. Here is what goes into it.

Three Types of Odds

Any Card

The probability of pulling any card featuring this athlete in a single box. This includes base cards, inserts, numbered parallels, and autographs, every card in the checklist weighted by its official pack odds.

Numbered Parallel

The probability of pulling a numbered card for this athlete. Each numbered parallel tier (/299, /199, /99, /50, /25, /10, /5, /1) carries its own weight based on official pack odds. Athletes with more numbered cards across more tiers have a higher combined probability.

Autograph

The probability of pulling an autograph for this athlete. If a box guarantees one or more autographs, that guarantee is used as the pull floor. The percentage then reflects this athlete's share of the full autograph pool, weighted by the odds of each auto insert set they appear in.

How the Math Works

Every card in the checklist is assigned a weight based on its official pack odds. A card at 1:10 packs carries more weight than a card at 1:500 packs. An athlete's hit percentage is their share of the total pool weight for that card type, adjusted for the number of packs in a box and any box guarantees.

This means two things matter beyond just the odds number: how many cards an athlete has in the set, and how those cards are distributed across insert sets and parallel tiers. An athlete with one autograph at 1:26 and another at 1:500 has a higher combined auto probability than an athlete with only the 1:26 entry.

Box Guarantees

When a box guarantees autographs or numbered cards, those guarantees are factored in as the minimum number of pulls from that pool. The athlete percentage then reflects their likelihood of being the one you pull from that guaranteed slot, not a 100% chance across all athletes.

Why the Calculator Sometimes Does Not Appear

The calculator requires three things to generate reliable results: a complete checklist, official pack odds, and a box configuration. If any of these are missing or incomplete for a set, the calculator will not display rather than show numbers that could be misleading.

As checklists and odds are added and verified, the calculator becomes available automatically.

Box Type Selector

Different box types (Hobby, Value, Sapphire, Blaster, etc.) have different pack counts, odds sheets, and guarantees. Switching box types recalculates all three probabilities using the configuration and odds for that specific format.